Reinoud Leenders - International Relations UVA
RECENT COMMENTARY
"Syria's Crisis: A Credible Threat is What is Needed," (with Steven Heydemann), 8 May 2012, at OpenDemocracy
The escalation of regime violence is not a response to the rise of an armed opposition, but the reaction of the Assad regime to a popular uprising that has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Without a credible threat, ‘Weapons vs. Negotiations’ is a false choice.
"Rethinking the Promotion of Democracy After the Syrian Uprising", NOREF paper, 29 February 2012
full text at NOREF
“Let’s Call Bashar’s Bluff” by Reinoud Leenders Friday, November 11th, 2011 Guest Opinion Piece
Those who say that the Arab League initiative on Syria is already dead and buried, as could have been expected from anything generated by this dysfunctional and toothless ‘talk shop’,can and should be proven wrong.Full op-ed on Syria Comment
The Syrian Uprising and the Power of Stories
Rarely are Syrian activists given a voice to express their grievances, wishes, desires, aspirations and dilemmas. It is against this background that this newsletter has given the floor to someof such Syrian writer-activists who, despite the high risks involved, continue to publish their commentary in the Arabic-language media. It is in the power of their stories that these Syrian and Arab authors prove themselves to be true revolutionaries.
Full text in Hivos/UvA Newsletter
Comment on the Arab Uprisings: Popular Uprising in Syria: Beware of the Henchmen from Within, 13 May 2011
While unprecedented mass protests are met withfierce regime repression throughout Syria,researchers and academicians are frequently asked to comment on what they know least about: What will happen? The persistence of the media and others to raise this question, although understandable, is remarkable, if only because no Syria watchers had foreseen the current turmoil in the first place. However, the immediate future may not be fully unintelligible. Indeed, if the recent and more distant past may serve as a guide to the future --but not without failing to add a range of obligatory disclaimers-- popular-led regime change in Syria still appears unlikely. Instead, unremitting instability and a standoff between protestors and the regime are more likely to follow, prompting a stalemate of forces and piecemeal reforms that are bound to be frustrating hopes for fundamental change and that most probably will invite more anger and more violence. Yet while in the next few months all eyes will be set on the enduring confrontations between the protestors and the regime, the main challenge may come fromwithin the regime as,in Syria’s past, heavy reliance on extra-judicial repression has had a tendency among security- and (para-) military forces to turn against the regime itself.
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Full comment on RUSI.org
Comment on the Arab uprisings: Syrian Petition for Political Change: A Missed Opportunity, May 2011
Read further in MRZine (Monthly Review)
مناقشة لبيان المعارضة السورية للتغيير السياسي
Comment on the Arab uprisings: "Regional Contagion in the Middle East: For 'good' or 'Worse'? - March 2011
FORTHCOMING:
Spoils of Truce: Corruption and State-building in Postwar Lebanon, Forthcoming with Cornell University Press, expected October 2012.
This book documents and analyzes the pervasiveness of corruption in Lebanon since its precarious post-war transition process was initiated bythe Ta’if peace accord in 1989. Itdoes so by exploring in detail the many ways in which corruption increasingly implicated the country’s main policymakers and senior public servants, and bysituating its occurrence in the context of political elites’ efforts to rebuild state institutions following 16 years of unremitting political violence and war. The book’s focus on the state offers a window into the rarely studied nature, quality and origins of state institutions in contemporary Lebanon. Its qualitative and disaggregated approach complements and critically reflects on neo-liberal quantitative approaches dominating the study of corruption generally. Its findings should be uncomfortable reading to those who insist that inclusionist strategies and related devices in conflict management and –resolution are to be commonly recommended to divided societies hoping to recover from armed conflict.
Get notified by Cornell University Press
“Collective Action and Popular Mobilization in Dar’a: An Anatomy of the Onset of Syria’s Uprising,” Mobilization – An International Journal, forthcoming.
This article addresses the question how and why significant popular mobilization in Syria took off in ‘peripheral’ Dar’a. Accordingly, the paper focuses on the province’s dense social networks involving clans, (circular) labour migration, cross-border movements, and crime. It is argued thatDar’a’s social networks served as a site where nonconforming views on Ba’ath subordination could develop and be shared; they contributed to thetransfer,circulation and interpretation of information wherebythe shifting opportunities emanating from events in the region were recognized, and the regime’s threats were framed in ways that compelled people to act; they provided an important sense of solidarity and presented the background against which recruitment for mobilization took place; and they provided key skills and resources for mobilization to be effective. Thanks to their miscibility, Dar’a’s dense social networks substituted for the role attributed to “brokers”, and this way managed to effectively connect individuals of different origins and strata in an otherwise prohibitive authoritarian context.
Mobilization - an international journal
With Steven Heydemann (eds), Middle East Authoritarianisms: Governance, Contestation, and Regime Resilience in Syria and Iran, Forthcoming with Stanford University Press.
Whatever our own hopes for more widespread and deeper democratic transformations in the Middle East, the facts suggest that authoritarianism will remain a prominent and formidable presence in the lives of millions of citizens across the Middle East. The study of authoritarian governance remains essential for our understanding of the political dynamics and inner workings ofregimes across the region—even while recognizing that recent events demand renewed attention on our part to shifts and pressures that might drive cases such as Syria and Iran in directions thatnow, in the wake of Tunisia and Egypt, can no longer beruled out. With contributions by Caroline Donati, Kevan Harris, Thomas Pierret, Teije Donker, Arzoo Osanloo, Max Weiss, Güneş Murat Tezcür, Anush Ehteshami, Raymond Hinnebusch, Heidi Huuhtanen, PaolaRaunio, Maaike Warnaar &Tina Zintl.
Stanford University Press volume information
“Prosecuting Political Dissent: Courts and the Resilience of Authoritarianism in Baathist Syria,” in: eds. with Steven Heydemann, Middle East Authoritarianisms: Governance, Contestation, and Regime Resilience in Syria andIran, Forthcoming with Stanford University Press.
RECENT PUBLICATIONS:
“Getting the ‘Ladder of Options’ Right: The Illusive and Real Security Fallout of the Iraqi Refugee Crisis,” in: John Calabrese and Jean-Luc Marret (eds), Transatlantic Cooperation on Protracted Displacement: Urgent Need and Unique Opportunity, Middle East Institute 2012.
“Authoritarian Learning and Authoritarian Resilience: Regime Responses to the 'Arab Awakening'”, Globalizations, Vol 8 (5), 2011 (with Steven Heydemann).
The spread of protests throughout the Arab world can be viewed as the productof social learning by Arab citizens—awave effect facilitated by the rapid diffusion of ideas, discourses, and practices from one country to another and their adaptation to local contexts. Yet it less commonly recognized that also Arab regimes’ counter-revolutionary strategies have been shaped by processes of learning and diffusion among regime elites, especially among those where protests began later in the sequence of events that constitute the Arab awakening. Accordingly, there have been two parallel processes at work in the unfolding and the potentialunraveling of theArab awakening, one at the level of Arab societies and the other among authoritarian regimes. Initially, these worked to the advantage of protestors. As regimes adapted to the repertoires of contention developed by protesters and assessed the direction of regional and international trends, the advantage shifted in their direction. Several incumbents in the region became increasingly persuaded that their best betlay in strategies of repression, and, in essence, of hunkering down and pursuing a range of measures to ride out the uprisings which themselves seemed to confront diminishing probabilities of success.
Globalizations
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
Book review: Dispossession and Displacement: Forced Migration in the Middle East and North Africa (D.Chatty and B. Finlayson eds.), in: Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol 24 (2), 2011.
With Steven Heydemann: Resilient Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from Syria and Iran & Implications for Democracy Promotion, Policy paper Hivos/UvA, March 2011. (co-authored with Steven Heydemann).
Authoritarianism and the Judiciary in Syria:Regime Resilience and Implications for Judicial Reform Assistance. Hivos/UvA Knowledge Programme Civil Society in West Asia, Working Paper, December 2010.
“Strong States in a Troubled Region: Anatomies of a MiddleEastern Regional Conflict Formation,” Comparative Social Research, Vol.26, 2010.
“Refugee Warriors or War Refugees? Iraqi Refugees' Predicament in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon,”Mediterranean Politics, Vol.14, No 3, 2009.
Book review:Gareth Stansfield, Iraq -People, History, Politics, (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2007), Comparative Sociology, Vol 8, 2009, pp. 308-310.
Comparative Sociology
"L’adieu aux armes : la politique des réfugiés irakiens et son impact sécuritaire sur la région," Maghreb-Machrek, No 198, Hiver 2008, pp.93-122.
Privés del’ancien statut de protection promis par une convention internationale vieille de 50 ans mais deplus en plus écornée, les 11,4 millions de réfugiés dans le monde sont de plus en plusperçus par leurs hôtes, au nord et au sud, comme un fardeau, voire comme des profi teurs, des parias etdes fauteurs de trouble. Lasous-discipline des études sur les réfugiés, tentera-t-on de montrer dans cet article, s’est volontier adaptée et a adopté ce changement d’attitude envers eux, en développant une conception sécuritaire et criminelle de sonsujet. Elle l’a fait en produisant des appellations pseudo-scientifi ques et des conclusions extrapolées à partir de situations exceptionnelles, mais qui sont pourtant appliquées. Cet article tentera de le prouver et de l’illustrer en se concentrant sur la crise des réfugiés irakiens.
"Regional Conflict Formations': Is the Middle East Next?," Third World Quarterly, Vol 28, No 5, 2007 (July 2007).
As Iraq is plunging into civil war, politics and violence in the Middle East are increasingly perceived to be highly interconnected and entwined. This article offers an attempt to begin understanding the nature and scope of this regional interconnectednessinvolving three of the region’s states –Iraq, Syria andLebanon. In the suggested approach, the articletakesadvantage ofthe work by scholars of other regions than the Middle East, moreprecisely thoseanalyzing the “new wars” and “Regional Conflict Formations” (RCF) of primarily Central- and West Africa and the Balkans. This article suggests that, provided some methodological problems are addressed or at least acknowledged, the RCF modeloffers a useful approach to studying and addressing this region’s multiple conflicts. The article’s assessment of the RCF model’sutilityinreferenceto the Middle East –broken down along the suggestedlevels of military networks, political networks, economic/financial networks and social networks-- suggests that its emphasison material-physical linkages neglects important symbolic-political resources that easily crossborders and are equally determining in fueling and framingconflicts. This lacuna is echoed in US policymaking toward the Middle East. The article concludes that inorder toavoid myopia inboth analysis and policymaking, such more discursive processes ought to be integrated into and be made complementary with the RCF conceptualization of conflict-related cross-border traffic. This will also allow forbetteranalysisof the complexity of identitypolitics andunderscoresthe fallacy ofassumed Western exogeneity to this region’s conflicts.
"Israeli-Syrian Negotiations: An Observer's View of lessons andprospects", paper preparedforMadrid +15, Towards Peace in the Middle East, conference Madrid, January 2007.
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« Au-delà du ‘pays des deux fleuves’: une configuration conflictuelle régionale?, » Critique Internationale, No. 34,January-March 2007
Le modèle des « guerres en réseaux » ou « configurations conflictuelles régionales » (CCR) ne constitue qu’un tout premier pas dans la compréhension des relations complexes entre les conflits qui agitent l’Irak, la Syrie etle Liban. Certes, les niveaux d’analyse qu’ilproposedutrafictransfrontalier des personnes et desbiens sont sansaucun doute un préalableindispensable à l’étude desliens entreles différents conflits delarégion. Mais une descriptionqui en resterait là ne ferait qu’alimenter la myopie des politiques actuelles du gouvernementaméricain au Moyen-Orient. C’est pourquoi il est urgent d’intégrer à cette approche la notion de régionalisation du capitalsymbolique qui, seule,permet decomprendre que l’Occident n’est pas un acteur exogène aux conflits régionaux et de reformuler en conséquence l’analyse et les politiques. Par ailleurs, compte tenu de l’importance du capital symbolique et des interventions extérieures dans les conflits régionaux, la vision statiqueetexcessivement simpliste de lapolitique identitairedéveloppée par le modèle des CCR (RCFs)doit être revue afin d’intégrer trois éléments : les liens matérielstransfrontaliers, le capital symbolique régional et les interventions extérieures.
"How the Rebel Regained His Cause: Hizbullah & the Sixth Arab-Israeli War," MIT Electronic Journal of Middle East Studies, Volume 6,Summer 2006 (special edition on Israel's invasion in Lebanon – edited by Reinoud Leenders, Amal Ghazal and Jens Hanssen).
Also in this issue: “Lebanon’s Political Economy: After Syria, an Economic Ta’if?"
MIT-EJMES Special Edition on War in Lebanon
“European Democratization Strategies in Lebanon and Syria”,in: Ivo H. Daalder et.al. (eds), Crescent of Crisis: US-European Strategyfor the Greater Middle East, (Brookings Inst. Press and the EU Institute for Security Studies,2005).Co-authored with Eva Goes.
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Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm, ICG Report 5 December2005 (contributing author)
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Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria,ICG Report, 12 April 2005
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"Know Thou Enemy:Hizbollah, 'Terrorism' and the Politics of Perception," in:Third World Quarterly, April 2005 (co-authored with Mona Harb)
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"Corruption and Reconstruction in Iraq", in: Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2004, March 2005 (co-authored withJustin Alexander)
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"Nobody Having Too Much to Answer For: Laissez-Faire, Networks and Postwar Reconstruction in Lebanon", in: Steven Heydemann (ed), Networks of Privilege in the Middle East: The Politics of Economic Reform, (Palgrave/Macmillan, 2004).
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Reconstructing Iraq, ICGReport, 2 September 2004
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Syria Under Bashar I: Foreign Policy Challenges, ICG Report,11 February 2004
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Syria Under BasharII: Domestic Policy Challenges, ICG Report, 11February 2004
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"Middle East and North Africa", in:Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2003,Co-authored withJohn Sfakianakis
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Hizbollah: Rebel Without aCause?, ICG Report, 30 July 2003
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War in Iraq: Managing Humanitarian Relief, ICGReport, 27 March 2003
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"Public Means to Private Ends: State Building and Powerin Post-WarLebanon", in: Eberhard Kienle (ed), Politics from Above,Politicsfrom Below: TheMiddleEast in the Age of Reform, Saqi Books, 2003
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Old Games, New Rules:Conflict on theIsrael-Lebanon Border, ICG Report, 18 November 2002
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"Egypt: State Control versus Armed Islamic Groups", in:ECCP, Searching For Peace: Africa, 2000
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"Western Sahara: Africa's last Colony", in: ECCP, Searching for Peace: Africa, 2000
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"Algeria: Civilians Trampled in a State of Turmoil", in: ECCP, SearchingforPeace:Africa,2000
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"Auf der Suche nachdem Staat: Korruption in Nachkriegs Libanon", in: INAMO, No20, 1999.
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"An Amateur Crossing Boundaries in the Opposition", in: Edwardsaid: Thinker BeyondBorders, Vereniging Spinoza Huis, 1999 (in Dutch, co-authored with Mouin Rabbani)
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"A Political Economy of Post-War Reconstruction in Lebanon:Budget Deficits, Public Debts and Political Bankruptcy", in: Beirut Blaetter, Orient Institut Beirut, 1997.
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Lebanon: The Emerging Regional Financial Centre?, University of Amsterdam, August1996 (co-authored withBassam Fattouh)
TheStruggle of the State and Civil Society in Egypt: Professional Organizations and Egypt's Careful StepsToward Democracy, Middle East Research Associates, Amsterdam, April 1996.
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